Prediction of the Irrigation Area Carrying Capacity in the Tarim River Basin under Climate Change

The Tarim River Basin (TRB) is one of the world’s largest cotton-producing areas, and its agricultural water use accounts for up to 95% total consumption in basin. Quantifying future changes irrigation area carrying capacity under global warming therefore essential TRB. In this study, we analyzed variation TRB over last few decades, utilized nonlinear autoregressive with an exogenous input neural network simulate available resources, predicted based on balance equation. results showed that present (1970–2020) exhibited increasing trend from 491 km2 1970s 1382 2020, as most natural vegetation was transformed into cropland. (2022–2050), resource will show upward tendency while mainly ranges 12×102–21×102 17×102–30×102 scenarios SSP (shared socioeconomic pathway) 245 SSP585, respectively. simulated provide useful information allocation resources regional sustainable development